Gold Price Forecast: Traders Eyeing US Inflation Data, Debt Ceiling Stalemate - Trade Oracle

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Gold Price Forecast: Traders Eyeing US Inflation Data, Debt Ceiling Stalemate

Introduction

Gold prices have seen a decline due to stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data, which tempered expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, weak inflation data could boost gold prices. Additionally, the warning from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the debt ceiling could affect gold prices. China’s gold reserves have risen, and the near-term outlook for gold remains uncertain amidst economic data.

Impact of U.S. Inflation Data on Gold Prices

Gold prices fell as investors awaited U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. If the reports show subdued inflation, it could lead to lower interest rate expectations from the Fed, which would be beneficial for gold prices. Traders also keep an eye on the U.S. banking sector and debt ceiling developments.

Yellen’s Warning Boosts Interest in Gold

Gold is a popular safe-haven asset that people tend to invest in during times of economic uncertainty and lower interest rates. In a recent warning, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized the importance of Congress raising the debt ceiling. She explained that if they fail to do so by early June, it could lead to a “constitutional crisis” and harm the federal government’s creditworthiness. If the U.S. government runs out of cash to pay its bills, gold is likely to benefit, and its prices could move up to $2,100.

China’s Gold Reserves Rise

China held 66.76 million fine troy ounces of gold at the end of April, up from 66.50 million ounces at end-March. The value of China’s gold reserves rose to $132.35 billion at the end of April from $131.65 billion at the end-March.

Uncertainty in Gold (XAU) Outlook Amidst Economic Data

The near-term outlook for gold remains uncertain as investors wait for key economic data from the US, including CPI, PPI, and consumer confidence reports. If the data shows subdued inflation, this could be good news for gold prices due to lower interest rate expectations from the Fed. However, a drop in gold prices on Monday indicates investor caution, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s warning about the debt ceiling could also affect gold prices. In the event of a U.S. government cash shortage, gold is likely to benefit, potentially pushing prices up to $2,100.

Technical Analysis

Gold is edging lower but hovering slightly above its pivot at $2002.54. This price is controlling the near-term direction of the market. A sustained move over $2002.54 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is (R1) at $2035.78. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next major target (R2) at $2082.03. A failure to hold $2002.54 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into (S1) at $1956.30.

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